I think all firewall rules are semi dumb --- as is default prodding of them as needed.
Iptables while powerful isn't exactly a great manageable heap... Guess I need to spend more intimate time with it or find a better management front end for iptables. Recommendations.
When I ran a cpanel server, I found ConfigServer Firewall to be super-awesome. Every few hours I got an email stating "detected brute force from X.X.X.X/CN, blocked". It analyzed failed logins, brute-forces, too many apache connections, etc. and inserted an iptables rule.
There are other packages that do this as well - fail2ban - but CSF was nice because it plugged into cpanel.
I find the utility of firewalls increases with the number of users. If it's a VPS and I'm the only user - probably not much value because I'm running a few services on oddball ports and I'm not likely to start up any others. Then again, apt-get the wrong Debian package and you can find yourself serving samba to the Internet, so...