# Stephen Hawking on AI - "Could end the human race"



## MartinD (Dec 2, 2014)

From the BBC Technology section:

"Prof Stephen Hawking, one of Britain's pre-eminent scientists, has said that efforts to create thinking machines pose a threat to our very existence."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30290540

Not sure what I think about it all but it would be a real possibility.


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## Steven F (Dec 2, 2014)

MartinD said:


> From the BBC Technology section:
> 
> 
> "Prof Stephen Hawking, one of Britain's pre-eminent scientists, has said that efforts to create thinking machines pose a threat to our very existence."
> ...


""It would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate," he said.

"Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn't compete, and would be superseded.""

What I take from him is that it's more a problem that humans will become useless, which is already becoming a problem with basic robotics. However, I really don't know if I believe that robots will ever become advanced enough to create knowledge.


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## comXyz (Dec 2, 2014)

Things always have good and bad sides.

Hmm, I'm going to code a robot that can code another robot for me.


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## HalfEatenPie (Dec 2, 2014)

Steven F said:


> ""It would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate," he said.
> 
> "Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn't compete, and would be superseded.""
> 
> What I take from him is that it's more a problem that humans will become useless, which is already becoming a problem with basic robotics. However, I really don't know if I believe that robots will ever become advanced enough to create knowledge.


Well...  I'll just leave this here. (CGP Grey is awesome)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

tldr: People are creating programs that are "learning".  One of the biggest things they have setup right now is that it sees the initial, it sees the result, it tries to figure out how to get to that result state from the initial state.  It's pretty fascinating research honestly.

I love R&D.


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## Steven F (Dec 2, 2014)

HalfEatenPie said:


> Well...  I'll just leave this here. (CGP Grey is awesome)
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
> 
> tldr: People are creating programs that are "learning".  One of the biggest things they have setup right now is that it sees the initial, it sees the result, it tries to figure out how to get to that result state from the initial state.  It's pretty fascinating research honestly.


That's not knowledge though, is it? It's just basic steps.

knowl·edge


ˈnäləj/


_noun_

 



*1*.


facts, information, and skills acquired by a person through experience or education; the theoretical or practical understanding of a subject.







So, it knows how to do it, but does it really understand what it's doing? I think the real discussion comes down to: will robots ever be sentient?

sen·tient


ˈsen(t)SH(ē)ənt/


_adjective_

 





able to perceive or feel things

 








Probably not.


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## HalfEatenPie (Dec 2, 2014)

Steven F said:


> That's not knowledge though, is it? It's just basic steps.
> 
> knowl·edge
> 
> ...


Eh I don't think sentient will play any role in it (that's relating Robots to Humans.  Robots don't have to be humans at all to create knowledge).  

You also forgot this definition of knowledge: awareness or familiarity gained by experience of a fact or situation.

Robots can be familiar with a situation in much less time than humans I believe, simply because they'll fully understand the concept in less time than a human can (especially since they'll be able to go back and reanalyze the situation in much more accurate way than humans can with our memory).

Recall the part about creativity in the CGP Grey video?  As a researcher in the scientific field (Civil Engineering, Water Resources, Climate Change Assessment and Adaptation), 99% of what I do can be automated really.  The biggest thing you need is an idea.  The idea of "how to further said research topic".  This can be solved by repurposing the "creativity" aspect from physical creativity to theoretical creativity.  It can really be as simple as "What if we apply this theory from another field to our field?" and then depending on the results going "Ok so how can we improve this efficiency of this?"  The entire purpose we are highly trained is because when running these simulations or thought processes we need to know the answers are correct, within reasonable realms, know how to execute the experiment properly (Which statistical test should be applied?  Did you over bias correct?  Did you under bias correct?  What statistical downscaling method is more applicable for this physical location?).

This is knowledge.  This is what everyone else does.  You get an idea, you investigate it, you accomplish it, you move on from there.  The government needs a study done, you receive the money, you look at that topic, you figure out how far they studied last time, you look into how you can expand from there.  

Therefore, I believe robots can easily look into obtaining more knowledge.  

Now this being the "end of humanity", while I do feel that's a bit dramatic I can see where he's coming from.  This of course doesn't mean I'm going to be putting on my tinfoil hat and freaking out, but it'd be interesting.  

Funny thing, my thesis is actually in the automation of these things.  It won't be to the extent of an "AI", but it should be able to gather proper input data, determine which statistical model is best suited for a given geographic area, which hydrologic model will be best for that location, and then go from there.


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## MartinD (Dec 2, 2014)

Steven F said:


> However, I really don't know if I believe that robots will ever become advanced enough to create knowledge.


A lot of our 'knowledge' has come from technology and computers helping us. You see it every day - the weather forecasts are done by computers (massive computational clusters). These calculations could never be done by us mere mortals. Give it to a computer.. well, it's a piece of cake. They generate knowledge so there's no reason why they can't use that knowledge themselves.


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## Aldryic C'boas (Dec 2, 2014)

7 replies in, and nobody's mentioned Terminator yet.

You people make me feel old.


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## HalfEatenPie (Dec 2, 2014)

MartinD said:


> A lot of our 'knowledge' has come from technology and computers helping us. You see it every day - the weather forecasts are done by computers (massive computational clusters). These calculations could never be done by us mere mortals. Give it to a computer.. well, it's a piece of cake. They generate knowledge so there's no reason why they can't use that knowledge themselves.


And....  I love this comment so much because this is basically part of what I do.  I mean it used to be ALL I did.  But now it's a part of what I do (granted it's still a big part). 

If you guys ever been in a NWS office, it's all just computers (at least the one I visited outside of DC).  The field office has some equipments, but (granted this was me at a conference talking with people from NOAA) a good bunch of people there are focused on computers and modelling for their part of the sky.  

Some of the stuff they have there.  You gotta believe it, it's awesome.  I took pictures.  I'll see if I can find them and post them somewhere.  

 




Aldryic C said:


> 7 replies in, and nobody's mentioned Terminator yet.
> 
> You people make me feel old.



Pfft.  It's easy.  Just get a bomb.  Or a hydraulic press.  Or pour boiling metal on it.


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## raindog308 (Dec 2, 2014)

s/could/will/

Unless we destroy ourselves first.  The "old threats" like nuclear, biological, and chemical warfare are very easily controlled compared to the "new threats" of genetics, nanotechnology,and robots.  cf: http://archive.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html


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## OpticServers (Dec 2, 2014)

HalfEatenPie said:


> Well...  I'll just leave this here. (CGP Grey is awesome)
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
> 
> ...


Interesting Video... i enjoyed watching that


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## DomainBop (Dec 2, 2014)

Aldryic C said:


> 7 replies in, and nobody's mentioned Terminator yet.
> 
> You people make me feel old.


12 repiles in, and someone mentioned Terminator but nobody's mentioned Westworld.

Now I feel really really old.


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## drmike (Dec 2, 2014)

AI is bad news.  

It's all track and trace, never forget, perma record for every grain of your life.  That will lead to more annoying taxation, tax to breath, monitoring of every biological aspect, etc.  It will be hyper analysis of things that should never be in public or in some system.  Even legitimate uses are rather blah industrial / market warfare escalation in the end.

AI doesn't mean intelligent.   It's automation of shitty behavior by less than moral folks.

Then again AI in my mind isn't new.  Look at all the frat boys we have rubber stamped out of universities.  Degree pedigree.. Qualified in XYZ.  Big picture one dimensional at best, artificially intelligent at best.   

The modern frat boy at least in our finer schools are the tech dweebs.  They are all about boosting their lack of powers with machines and thus AI is a masturbation focus for them along with ROBOTS.

Control freak are going to try to control.


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## tonyg (Dec 2, 2014)

The Lawnmower Man.


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## GIANT_CRAB (Dec 2, 2014)

Typical robot in the future: Humans are made to reproduce, just like bacteria.


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## HalfEatenPie (Dec 2, 2014)

drmike said:


> AI is bad news.
> 
> It's all track and trace, never forget, perma record for every grain of your life.  That will lead to more annoying taxation, tax to breath, monitoring of every biological aspect, etc.  It will be hyper analysis of things that should never be in public or in some system.  Even legitimate uses are rather blah industrial / market warfare escalation in the end.
> 
> ...


Haha I guess I fall into that category since I was a "Frat Boy"? (and now as an Alumni, serve on the Alumni Board)

Honestly, I believe it's simply a tool to make our lives easier, or make our jobs obsolete.  I mean you don't blame the rifle for shooting someone, you blame the person who was pointing it.  I believe it's similar in that way.  If you create AIs with malicious intent then I'd blame the person who made it.  Similar to the Internet, I believe it's important to look into utilizing AIs in a more positive manner.  I mean just because some people use the internet for spying on other,s sending out DDoS or kiddie stuff doesn't mean the rest of us are to get our rights taken away does it?


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## drmike (Dec 3, 2014)

HalfEatenPie said:


> Haha I guess I fall into that category since I was a "Frat Boy"? (and now as an Alumni, serve on the Alumni Board)
> 
> Honestly, I believe it's simply a tool to make our lives easier, or make our jobs obsolete.  I mean you don't blame the rifle for shooting someone, you blame the person who was pointing it.  I believe it's similar in that way.  If you create AIs with malicious intent then I'd blame the person who made it.  Similar to the Internet, I believe it's important to look into utilizing AIs in a more positive manner.  I mean just because some people use the internet for spying on other,s sending out DDoS or kiddie stuff doesn't mean the rest of us are to get our rights taken away does it?


You aren't that sort of Americana frat boy and you know it 

You indeed are right that it's the people behind the technology to blame versus the technology.

Now look around and show me technology companies and people being slapped, charged, sued, etc. for their lying arse bad behavior.  Let me know when you find some token examples.

Technology is probably only 2nd to Finance in lack of enforcement and legal heat for bad behavior.

I've known some of the very prominent folks in the world, and well,  if I were less moral I'd be inclined to make their brains no longer work right to save humanity.   But in their shoes comes another DARPA funded academic youth with all the idealistic BS to be pimped by the war apparatus.

I was never a fan of science fiction, in fact I truly despise it.  These days, I feel like I am living in a science fiction horror movie with what continues to go on in tech + gov.


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## stim (Dec 3, 2014)

Shuddup and give me my flying car already.


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## drmike (Dec 3, 2014)

stim said:


> Shuddup and give me my flying car already.


Not going to... happen...

Hell Glockenoogle doesn't even want you to be able to drive a car on your lonesome.  Yeah I know they haven't sold their tech in public like that.. But it's coming... soon....

Imagine the fears and phobias of people when they contemplate private flying crafts.   not going to... happen.


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## texteditor (Dec 3, 2014)

Color me unsurprised that the first strong AI would briefly skim the internet and come to the conclusion that humanity should be exterminated


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## rupe (Dec 3, 2014)

Well, by the time AI has reached the point where it could conclude that its host should start killing off humanity, humanity will have already started downloading the contents of their 'grey matter' to robotic/hybrid hosts in their quest for immortality. So the AI powered robots would basically be killing themselves off, or, in other words, taken the next step towards becoming more like their human overlords creators


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## RackMine (Dec 8, 2014)

DomainBop said:


> 12 repiles in, and someone mentioned Terminator but nobody's mentioned Westworld.
> 
> Now I feel really really old.


am i the only one who think of i-robot ?  :unsure:


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## EnveraHost (Dec 11, 2014)

I think I've seen this in a movie before.....


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## Abdussamad (Dec 11, 2014)

HalfEatenPie said:


> Well...  I'll just leave this here. (CGP Grey is awesome)
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
> 
> ...



This is the same argument that farm workers made in the 19th century. Machines would render them jobless and when people would have no jobs who would buy all that produce? It's the same argument Americans make today about the rise of China. Chinese are stealing our jobs and when we have no jobs how are we going to buy stuff?

It doesn't work like that. Increases in efficiency result in lower prices. People now have more money to spend on other stuff so that leads to spending in other areas which propels demand for jobs there. Instead of agriculture you move into manufacturing. Instead of manufacturing you go into service sector jobs. That's the path every country has taken to achieve prosperity (It might change in the future though because some countries are skipping manufacturing and going straight into services)

Those who can't adapt to these changes suffer but humanity as a whole moves forward. This universe we live in is pretty big. If we develop machines that automate our lives on this planet then invariably that means we can start exploiting resources in space. It doesn't stop.


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