Right now, I believe Linux has a 1% market share on the desktop/laptop or something along those lines - imagine how many new people (and tinkerers!) even an increase to only 10% would bring in (which is a very reasonable expectation in the longer term, as games and media production software become available on Linux). This will in turn lead to more source code contributions - at a rate that Microsoft really won't be able to match, because they actually have to pay every single of their developers.
The folks counting market share are full of shit. Linux is way bigger than 1%.
To start I lump Apple in since their OS is Unix and Linux and Unix are more related than cousins.
Second I look at folks like myself and there are no Windows OS installs here. My desktops and workstations all run Linux or Unix. I have a bunch of them, in fact more than probably everyone combined in the rest of my block combined. Plus I've migrated a number of regular folks to Linux and they aren't out buying anything, their computing just works year after year.
When we look at the changing use of computing, soooooooooooooooooooo many people are basically phone + tablet these days. The desktop (if they even have one) is an afterthought. Why? Cause most people produce nothing significant and use their desktop and other devices for short communications - emails, texts, IM, etc. You don't need a desktop for those.
When I look at tablet and phone world, where is Windows? Lagging waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyy behind. I have many phones and tablets here, not a single one runs Windows.
Will going open source save Microsoft? Maybe. Until then they'll spend their billions trying to compete on mobile side (phones and tablets) and diversifying into usage based billing models (big illusion idea that people don't want to own but rather want to rent things).
When you look more broadly, all the integrated computers in things (TVs, appliances, cars, etc.) you will see lots of Linux and have for many years.
But, all this open and idealism still sucks. I was anti-Microsoft for a long time for their bad behavior and manipulation of the market. Now we see same idiotic behavior out of Google to a much larger extent. We likely see more of that from Samsung, certainly more of that from Apple. It's a corporate problem and mass greed.
The veneer has come off of open source. The idealism of free contributions remains fringe folks and extensions of corporate employed churning at work based on Linux to cut product development and costs.
Open source matters and there are good projects, but many come and go and have limited durability or grow up and become corporate. Enough fail to grow corporate and just die on the vine.
Until we build more intentional and contributor based living communities, there is a huge disconnect between those of us idealistic about open source and the way we live big picture. The two life segments barely ever connect and spill out to tangible world. If more tangible results, open source would become a more noble and more larger matter thing.
I am a huge fan of open source, but it's still awkward, broken, poverty sector, etc. Very similar to musicians and various form artists. Open source does matter.
Microsoft, meh, I find little good to say about them. The world doesn't need them for sure. Die.
