Bad news everyone.
So IANA published the scripts they use to generate allocation requests -
https://github.com/icann/ipv4-recovery-algorithm/blob/master/recover-ipv4-space
The bad news is that i've gone ahead and run it, and it looks like each region is getting a /14.
IP addresses available to allocate: 2,128,128 (21.0 bits)
Each allocatee receives: 262,144 (/14 equivalent)
Making allocations:
192.142.0.0/15 (131072 addresses) -> ARIN
45.66.0.0/15 (131072 addresses) -> RIPE NCC
45.2.0.0/15 (131072 addresses) -> AFRINIC
164.160.0.0/16 (65536 addresses) -> APNIC
147.78.0.0/16 (65536 addresses) -> LACNIC
131.196.0.0/16 (65536 addresses) -> ARIN
157.119.0.0/16 (65536 addresses) -> RIPE NCC
128.201.0.0/16 (65536 addresses) -> AFRINIC
152.89.0.0/16 (65536 addresses) -> APNIC
149.248.0.0/16 (65536 addresses) -> LACNIC
164.163.0.0/16 (65536 addresses) -> ARIN
144.168.0.0/16 (65536 addresses) -> RIPE NCC
144.48.0.0/16 (65536 addresses) -> AFRINIC
139.28.0.0/16 (65536 addresses) -> APNIC
139.26.0.0/16 (65536 addresses) -> LACNIC
139.5.0.0/16 (65536 addresses) -> APNIC
137.59.0.0/16 (65536 addresses) -> LACNIC
Allocations Made:
-> AFRINIC:
45.2.0.0/15 131072
128.201.0.0/16 65536
144.48.0.0/16 65536
-- Total 262144
-> APNIC:
139.5.0.0/16 65536
139.28.0.0/16 65536
152.89.0.0/16 65536
164.160.0.0/16 65536
-- Total 262144
-> ARIN:
131.196.0.0/16 65536
164.163.0.0/16 65536
192.142.0.0/15 131072
-- Total 262144
-> LACNIC:
137.59.0.0/16 65536
139.26.0.0/16 65536
147.78.0.0/16 65536
149.248.0.0/16 65536
-- Total 262144
-> RIPE NCC:
45.66.0.0/15 131072
144.168.0.0/16 65536
157.119.0.0/16 65536
-- Total 262144
In other words, while we were accurate in how much they had available, it's around half the size of what we predicted they were going to get due rounding. It means that come next year there'll be another /15 to chop up for each region, then a /16 next September, etc.
Francisco