Maybe ColoCrossing will get a /12?
ARIN Stock Changes Feb 2014 - Down to 1.38
- Thread starter VPSCorey
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- ipv4 depeltion
I think there's going to be a mad dash once things get < 0.4. I was pretty damn sure that it would have been around ~0.35 right now, but it's possible that Charters space came from a subnet reserved for cable providers so it doesn't count against their normal stock counts? I dunno, it doesn't make a lot of sense since I was pretty sure 24/8 was long since gone.
Correct, there's a few of us betting pizza's on it
I think I had a bet for end of February?While I don't have a figure on it, it's safe to assume that there has been a lot of complaints to ARIN about CC committing fraud to get space. I'd be very surprised to see them get anything > /16. The last allocation they got was a /17 and that seems to be walled off as their 'new, clean ranges' when people rage. How a provider would go from a /14 previous allocation to a /17 6 months down the road doesn't make a lot of sense. CC has enough space that they should be pretty damn close to the highest pay bracket anyway.Maybe ColoCrossing will get a /12?
Francisco
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Thank you to @qps for the heads up:
Add 52.0.0.0-52.31.255.255
Add 52.64.0.0-52.95.255.255
Amazon just walked away with a /10. Assuming "Add" means it came from the open pool and isn't a transfer from another provider, this should put ARIN < 0.20 left.
EDIT - Not sure. Supposedly the space GEO'd to Dupont at one point, but I'm not sure if that was just old GEO data or what. Dupont still owns the next blocks up.
Francisco
Add 52.0.0.0-52.31.255.255
Add 52.64.0.0-52.95.255.255
Amazon just walked away with a /10. Assuming "Add" means it came from the open pool and isn't a transfer from another provider, this should put ARIN < 0.20 left.
EDIT - Not sure. Supposedly the space GEO'd to Dupont at one point, but I'm not sure if that was just old GEO data or what. Dupont still owns the next blocks up.
Francisco
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These two were Amazon's before too. When i received that email from ARIN i checked the whois and it was like "RegDate 2011----, Update 2014-10-20". Now it shows RegDate/Update 2015-01-21. But it is still Amazon, don't know what changed. Don't know if ARIN's database allows checking older records, to compare.
I think that's the reg/update of the ARIN handle, not the blocks:
http://whois.domaintools.com/52.95.255.255
Organization: Amazon Technologies Inc. (AT-88-Z)
RegDate: 2015-01-21
Updated: 2015-01-21
OrgName: Amazon Technologies Inc.
OrgId: AT-88-Z
Address: 410 Terry Ave N.
City: Seattle
StateProv: WA
PostalCode: 98109
Country: US
RegDate: 2011-12-08
Updated: 2014-10-20
Francisco
That's all I can think.
Dupont owned the first half of that /8 so them selling half to Amazon would make sense. That's a multi million dollar/stock deal.
Francisco
Seems to me that a certain LEB board frequenter (kind of an obnoxious guy, has a Sherlock Holmes avatar) has been suggesting for years that ipv4 exhaustion is overstated, because as prices for IPs rise, large organizations that own ridiculous blocks will find the financial incentives to release them and supply/demand will once again get in equilibrium.
That process won't work for ever, but people were saying OMG ALL THE NETS WILL BE DOWN IN THREE MONTHS!!1! several years ago. "Within the first quarter of 2011..." for example.
Have we finally reached genuine market exhaustion? If prices aren't rising, then no. I haven't seen a rise in price for buying extra IPs for VPSes, or even VPS prices overall rise. The opposite has been the case.
Well, we will see. Personally, I can't wait until the Class E patches come out...
big corps will figure things out, it just hurts the smaller companies needing space. When AT&T "runs low" they'll just CGNAT their cheapest/lowest plan customers since they likely don't need the dedicated IP anyway.
You aren't going to find many brands around that are able to drop $80k to get a /19 or things like that.
Francisco
You aren't going to find many brands around that are able to drop $80k to get a /19 or things like that.
Francisco
@raindog308 Forget Class E. There is so much equipment and so many operating systems that would need to be updated before it can be globally reachable... ipv6 would happen much sooner.
The reason I mention this is not really about ipv4 exhaustion...it's because Microsoft, Cisco, etc. have a powerful side motivation to support this.
Imagine the industry really did say "on day X, class E is open for business and your TCP/IP stacks must support it".
Microsoft: "Sorry about that, pirating XP users in China. No patch for you. A patch is available for Windows Vista, fo course...you ARE running Genuine Windows, aren't you?" Finally put a bullet in Windows XP's head. And it's beautiful - it's not the threat of nonexistent piracy cops, but rather "if you don't upgrade, your Internet will stop working".
Cisco: "Sorry all you gray market guys who buy our used gear on eBay. You can get a new version of ios through your support portal...just input your credentials...oh...well, we are running a special on support renewals, following the recertification fee..."
Apple/Google: "AN UPDATE IS AVAILABLE" (these guys are easy)
Half the industry: "Our older X1000 equipment you bought last year doesn't support this, but our new X2000 equipment does and we can make you an attractive upgrade offer..."
The other half: "Good thing you have that support contract. What's that? Oh, you need special premium extended support for that gear that is end of life, well let me work up a special quote for you..."
It's a gold mine.
Those BuyVM ballers would.
drmike
100% Tier-1 Gogent
I am glad to have read this @raindog308.
Spot on my friend.
With dwindling customers and lack of demand in all markets practically, what is a corporation to do? Support the creation of artificial scarcity. Then like you amply explained, cause forced reason to upgrade. This leads to massive inbound cashflow for something that is truly a non issue at this point in history.
"You aren't going to find many brands around that are able to drop $80k to get a /19 or things like that."
Oh you will. New corporations that spring up and want to be viable and were born too late will have to, especially those in technology segment related to bandwidth, hosting, etc.
Honestly, you will see lots of brokerage deals for long term IP leasing.
I suspect transit providers will also use the IP scarcity matter to drive up their prices indirectly. Same bandwidth, but those IPs you need well, they just went way up.
Already common in the US that one large cable company extorts small business customers $25 a month for a single IP. Just a mere $300 per year, for one IP. Ironically, that cable company has an incredible number of IPv4 address across multiple ASNs. Why? Got me beat.
I think it would slow down consumption of the remaining pool if they changed justification rules to no longer make a residential ISP customer justification for addresses. It would force the ISPs to look at CGNAT. Probably 80+% of residential connections could go without a dedicated IP address which would free up a lot of address space.
IPv6 is obviously the long term answer, but if there are reasonable measures that can be taken to slow down mass consumption (especially by residential ISPs, who have been eating a lot of address space), it would be interesting to take a look at.
IPv6 is obviously the long term answer, but if there are reasonable measures that can be taken to slow down mass consumption (especially by residential ISPs, who have been eating a lot of address space), it would be interesting to take a look at.
Honestly I would be happy to live with CGNAT on my home connections or pay for a dedicated IP from my ISP if it meant returning IP's back to the pool, it makes sense, nice to have does not outweigh unable to progress due to shortages.
Either way the next 3 years will be interesting.
Either way the next 3 years will be interesting.